Nordic Hydro Stocks Rise Slows for Third Consecutive Week

Nordic hydro stocks over 6-9 June (week 23) have now been increasing since week 18 of this year, albeit rising slowest compared to the past 4 weeks, as reservoir stocks increased at a relaxed pace in Sweden, Finland and Norway. Rainfall in the Nordics is expected to be above the 30-year norm for the majority of the two-week forecasts - possibly supporting stocks.

• Hydro reservoirs rose to 60.7%, or about 77.04TWh, from 56.8%, or 72.12TWh in week 22. This is the highest reservoir levels have been this year, only being slightly below reservoir stocks in week 52 of 2023 at 60.9% of capacity.
  
• Hydro stocks had the slowest week-on-week gain since first increasing in week 18 of this year, rising by only 3.9 percentage points (PP) compared to a 8.1 PP gain in week 22.
• On the year, hydro stocks narrowed their surplus slightly to 9.6 PP from 9.7 PP – which was the highest year-on year comparison so far in 2024.
• And reservoir levels narrowed their surplus to the 19-year avg sharply on the week to 6.3 PP compared to an 8.4 PP surplus in the previous week.
• Finnish hydro levels increased the slowest on the week, climbing by just 0.5 PP to 74.9%, or 4.14TWh – a fresh yearly high- and higher than the same capacity for same week in 2023 at 3.98TWh.
• Swedish and Nordic hydro stocks rose by 4.2 PP and 3.9 PP, respectively, on the week to 58% and 60.8% of capacity – both a yearly high.
• Further ahead, average precipitation across the Nordics over 13-21 June is forecast between 1.9-9mm compared to the 30-year norm of about 3mm, with rain on 20 June anticipated to be the highest, according to EXMWF forecasts.
• And nuclear capacity in the Nordic region will rise by about 890MW this week as Finland’s Olkiluoto 1 nuclear power plant is still anticipated to return on 16 June, with full power at the 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 achieved on 14 June, latest remit data show – increasing baseload capacity and supporting stocks.