POWER
Nordic hydropower reserves continued downward for the sixth week in a row to be at 78.5% capacity, 99.68TWh by the end of week 51, although, stocks widened their surplus to the same week in 2023 to a fresh 2024 high. Reservoirs slowed their fall amid higher precipitation in the region on the week, while demand remained relatively firm.
- Stocks dropped by 0.8 percentage points on the week compared to a 2-point fall in week 50. This is the slowest pace stocks have fallen since week 46, with reserves still at their lowest point since week 34 when they were at 78.5% of capacity.
- Despite the sustained downward trend, stocks continued to increase their surplus on the year, widening to 15.8 points from 15.6 points – another fresh yearly high
- Precipitation in the Nordic region rose on the week to a total of 19.34mm from 8.49mm in week 50. However, this is below the seasonal average of about 20mm.
- However, firm demand on the week weighed on stocks, with Norwegian demand averaging about 18.65GW from 19.39GW in week 50. Swedish demand averaged around 17.58GW from 18.83GW in week 50.
- Nuclear generation in the region was relatively stable on the week, with Swedish output at around 5.82GW from 5.81GW the week prior and Finnish generation at 4.04GW from 4.15GW.
- Hydro levels widen to a 7-point surplus to the 19-year average from 5.5 points in the previous week. This is also a 2024 high.
- Swedish reserves moved downward to be at 79.6% capacity from 81.5% of capacity in week 50, with Norwegian reserves dropping to 79.3% from 79.7% in week 50.
- And Finnish hydro stocks followed the same trend, falling to 59.1% of capacity from 59.7% the week prior and still much lower than the same week last year at 66.5%.
- Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF suggests Norway’s and Sweden’s hydrological balance to end at +11.40TWh and +5.01TWh, respectively, on 10 January compared to +10.89TWh and +4.65TWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
- Precipitation in the Nordic region has also been mostly revised higher over 28-31 Dec by up to 0.7mm, with the rainfall expected to be flip above the norm over on 30 December and reach as high as 6.7mm on 3 January compared to the seasonal average of 2.81mm.
And average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to remain above the seasonal average until 4 January, with temps at between minus 0.7C and 4.2C over 28 December- 3 January
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