Nordic June Declines Amid Temperatures, Nuclear Supply

The Nordic June baseload power contract is down sharply on the day as temperatures across the Nordics are still expected to be above seasonal norms – weighing on power demand – with high nuclear availability anticipated to keep power supply stable in the region. The contract could rise slightly as the trading session progresses amid price increases in neighbouring European power markets.

• Nordic M1 24 Baseload power contract down 7.04% at €37/MWh.
  
• Swedish utility Vattenfall is still anticipated to start-up its 1.11GW Forsmark nuclear reactor on 23 May at 12:00 CET, latest Remit data show.
• And Finland’s 101MW curtailment of its 1.6GW Olkiluoto 3 will end on 24 May, with the 890MW Olkiluoto 1 returning on 28 May.
• The 1.08GW Rinhals unit 3 nuclear power plant is still expected to be the only nuclear plant off line over June, with works occurring from 15 May-29 June.
• Nordic hydro stocks over 13-19 May (week 20) rose to their highest since week 7 of this year as the region gets ready for the 2024-25 winter season – which could suggest that hydro output may be somewhat limited over next month.
• Average temperatures in the Nordics have be revised slightly higher on the day over June, with forecast at ~16-17C during the month compared to the 30-year norm ~13-16C, according to Bloomberg model.
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecast at load factors of 11-15%, or 589-766MW over 24-25 May- down by around 250MW on the day. Wind is then forecast to drop between 22-35%, or 1.79-1.82GW over 26-28 May.