Nordic Power – Forecasts Suggest Wetter Outlook

The Nordic July power base-load contract has not yet traded today, however, losses in the German power market weighed on by lower gas and EU ETS prices are likely to weigh on Nordic power futures with additional downside from a rise in nuclear availability and the weather forecast suggesting wetter weather.

• EUA DEC 24 down 1.6% at 67.03 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas JUL 24 down 0.7% at 33.695 EUR/MWh
• TTF is edging lower with supply concerns eased slightly with the restart of Australia’s Wheatstone LNG and with a cooler weather forecast into July.
• The latest ECMWF forecast suggested temperatures will ease back from 28 June but remain above the seasonal normal throughout the 6-10 day forecast period.
• Precipitation in the Nordics is forecast to pick up on 27/28 June and will rise above normal until 30 June before falling back below the average. Rainfall is forecast to rise to 6.3mm on 29 June.
• Nuclear availability in the Nordics rose to 71% as of Monday morning, Bloomberg data showed.
• Finland’s Olkiluoto 3 continues to have reduced capacity until 5 July in an unplanned outage due to power supply issues.
• In Norway, wind output is forecast at 429MW to 1.96GW during base load on 25 June until 3 July according to SpotRenewables.