Nordic Sept Rebounds on Hydro Revision

The Nordic September has rebounded from its two-session decline, with a downward revision of Norway's hydrological balance providing upward pressure. However, the gains could be limited as European gas is trending downward, weighing on some EU power markets.

• Nordic Base Power SEP 24 up 6% at 27.5 EUR/MWh
• France Base Power SEP 24 up 3.9% at 72.45 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 0.1% at 92.65 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.1% at 72.44 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas SEP 24 down 0.5% at 39.45 EUR/MWh
• Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down on all days over 21 August-2 September- with the highest revision on 26 August of -500GWh. But is still expected to turn positive as early as 20 August at +202GWh and reach +1,801GWh on 2 September.
• Precipitation in Norway will be above the 30-year norm of around 4.3mm over 2110.62mm on 21-26 August and will drop below on 27-28 August at just 1.4-1.66mm.
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 32% load factor, or 1.69GW on 20 August – which could weigh down power prices on delivery. Wind will then drop to a 11% load factor next day – possible lifting costs from the previous day.
• Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 82% of capacity on Friday, up from 80% on the previous day, with 9 of 11 units online, according to Bloomberg.
• Nuclear maintenance in the region still scheduled at the 1.13GW Ringhals unit 4 over 15 August-13 September and the 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 over 1 September-18 October, the latest remit data show.