POWER: Nordic Spot May Dip in 2H Feb on Stronger Winds, More Sun, Warming Temps

Nordic day-ahead power prices could be higher in early February compared to the latter half of the month, as temperatures across the region are set to steadily drop between 5-14 February before rebounding, with wind speeds forecasts to be on a downward trend from 6-16 February and be sharply below the seasonal average.

• Average temperatures in the Nordics will be on a steady downward trend from 5 February to reach as low as -3.5C on 14 February before rebounding to as high as -0.8C on 28 February.
• The steady drop in temperatures in the 1H of the month compared to 2H could lead to lower power demand heading into March – possibly weighing on delivery costs.
• And wind speeds across the Nordics are anticipated to average 3.6m/s over 2-14 February compared to around 4m/s over 15-28 February – which could lead to stronger wind power in Norway, Denmark, Finland and Sweden in the 2H of February.
• However, wind will still be below the seasonal average of around 4.45m/s across February.
• Sunshine duration in the region will also rise in the second half of the month, averaging around 4.43Hrs over 15-28 February compared to 3.66Hrs over 1-14 February.
• Additionally, precipitation across the region will drop from its high of 2.2mm on 4 February and be between 0.2-7mm over 6-16 February. This compares to rainfall between 1.11-1.84mm over 17-28 February.
• Limited nuclear maintenance is anticipated in February, with the full return of the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 on track for the 4 February.