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Norges Bank Will View Soft March CPI Against Recent Wage Agreements

NORWAY

Norwegian March CPI-ATE was 4.5% Y/Y, below the consensus and Norges Bank March MPR forecast of 4.7% (and Feb’s 4.9%). The headline rate was also soft, at 3.9% Y/Y (vs 4.2% cons and Norges Bank forecast, 4.5% prior).

  • NOK weakened on release, but EURNOK has pared gains to sit flat today at typing.
  • While today’s data in isolation may generate speculation re: an earlier cut vs. the Bank’s current guidance (September), it must be assessed alongside the stronger-than-expected union wage agreements struck over the weekend.
  • Food and non-alcoholic beverages (a notable source of uncertainty amongst analysts pre-release), fell 1.9% M/M NSA (vs -0.6% prior), pulling down CPI-ATE. Meanwhile, the category’s annual disinflation rate only slowed a touch to 6.1% Y/Y (vs 6.3% prior).
  • Consumer goods CPI-ATE moderated on an annual basis in March – in line with expectations - to 4.3% Y/Y (vs 5.1% prior), driven by imported consumer goods.
  • Conversely, services CPI-ATE accelerated to 4.7% Y/Y (vs 4.6% prior), supporting Norges Bank’s guidance that rates need to remain at current levels for “some time ahead” with inflation still well above target.



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