North Asia Spot LNG Falls Back Into 12$/mmbtu Range

North Asia spot LNG prices have fallen back into the 12$/mmbtu range after the Freeport LNG terminal outage and Australia strike risks earlier this week help drive prices above 13$/mmbtu according to Bloomberg.

• Increased interest from Chinese importers following the tender by Unipec to secure additional LNG supplies which closed today have also been supportive.
• China’s LNG imports are seen as the key driver of Asian LNG demand with Japan and South Korea expected steady or even lower imports compared to last year due to more nuclear power generation.
• Japan’s demand could also be limited by warmer than normal temperatures at the start of winter. Japan Meteorological Agency sees an 80% chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures between Sept. 16 and Oct. 15 across most of the country.
• US LNG exports are still more profitable to Asia than Europe through to March 2024, according to BNEF. The front month JKM-TTF spread is holding a premium of about 0.65$/bbl this week.
  • TTF OCT 23 up 0.6% at 35.75€/MWh
  • NBP OCT 23 up 1.1% at 90.29p/th
  • JKM Apr 22 up 1.4% at 11.76$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Oct 23 up 0.1$/mmbtu at 0.66$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas OCT 23 down -0.5% at 2.69$/mmbtu