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Northeast US Gas Forecast Above Coal Switching in Winter

NATGAS

Northeast US gas prices have remained below the gas-to-coal fuel-switching range through the summer but higher winter prices could incentivize higher coal usage according to BNEF.

  • Dominion and TETCO M3 gas prices have average 1.68$/mmbtu and 2.41$/mmbtu, this year, well below the 5.71$/mmbtu top of the switching range.
  • TETCO M3 gas prices are set to jump above the range during winter 2023-24 before falling back to the lower end of the coal-to-gas switching range in summer 2024.
  • Northeast power sector gas demand has been sitting above the top of the five-year range throughout the year aided by low gas prices and despite mild weather. Weather between April and August in the eastern US was the mildest in the last five years at an average of 2.8 cooling degree days (CDD).


Source: Bloomberg

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