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Norway CPI Mini-Preview: Norges Bank’s Forecast Error Expected To Increase In April

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Norwegian April inflation is due tomorrow morning, with analysts expecting further disinflation in core and headline measures, and to a greater extent than Norges Bank’s March MPR projections.

  • Current Bloomberg consensus sees CPI-ATE at 4.2% Y/Y (vs 4.5% prior).
  • If realised, this would see the forecast error of the Norges Bank’s March MPR projection rise to 0.3pp (Norges Bank forecasted a CPI-ATE read of 4.7% in March and 4.5% in April).
  • The April inflation reading will need to be viewed alongside the May inflation figure to determine the impact on the Norges Bank, though a downside surprise similar to that seen in March may call into question the hawkish tilt seen at the May meeting.
  • Tomorrow will also see Norwegian participants return from today’s Bank Holiday, which may mean NOK crosses exhibit heightened sensitivity to the print as liquidity rebounds from today’s low levels.
  • A clear break of parity remains the key upside level in NOKSEK, while the 200-day EMA 0.9947 represents an important level on the downside.
  • See below for a selection of analyst views:

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Norwegian April inflation is due tomorrow morning, with analysts expecting further disinflation in core and headline measures, and to a greater extent than Norges Bank’s March MPR projections.

  • Current Bloomberg consensus sees CPI-ATE at 4.2% Y/Y (vs 4.5% prior).
  • If realised, this would see the forecast error of the Norges Bank’s March MPR projection rise to 0.3pp (Norges Bank forecasted a CPI-ATE read of 4.7% in March and 4.5% in April).
  • The April inflation reading will need to be viewed alongside the May inflation figure to determine the impact on the Norges Bank, though a downside surprise similar to that seen in March may call into question the hawkish tilt seen at the May meeting.
  • Tomorrow will also see Norwegian participants return from today’s Bank Holiday, which may mean NOK crosses exhibit heightened sensitivity to the print as liquidity rebounds from today’s low levels.
  • A clear break of parity remains the key upside level in NOKSEK, while the 200-day EMA 0.9947 represents an important level on the downside.
  • See below for a selection of analyst views: