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NORWAY: Norges Bank Focus Remains On CPI/RNS Data

NORWAY

Norges Bank’s focus will remain on August inflation (due Sep 10) and the Q3 Regional Network Survey (due Sep 12) ahead of its September monetary policy decision on Sep 19. 

  • At this stage, we think recent economic outturns warrant a downward revision to the policy path in September, with both inflation and GDP growth below the June MPR forecasts. This would re-open the door to a rate cut in December.
  • Although the August unemployment claims rate fell to 2.0% (vs 2.1% prior), this was in line with the June MPR forecast and so shouldn’t meaningfully sway NB’s rate projection alone.
  • The Regional Network survey will provide a forward-looking view on output and employment, as well as wage growth, investment and firm profitability.

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