NORWAY
The Norges Bank’s Q3 Regional Network survey continued to highlight wide differences in expectations across industries. There was a small downgrade in growth expectations for Q3 and more notable downward revision for investment expectations. Profitability expectations were increased though.
- This report could have a modest downward impact on the “domestic demand” component of the Norges Bank rate path but there was not enough of a deterioration in growth expectations to cement a dovish tilt at next week’s meeting (the weak NOK remains a hawkish factor).
- Output is expected to rise 0.2% Q/Q in Q3, a little lower than the 0.3% expected in last quarter’s survey. Q4 growth expectations were also 0.2% Q/Q. Investment expectations fell to -0.8% Y/Y (vs 0.7% prior) for 2024, with 2025 expectations seen at 1.2% Y/Y (vs 3.7% prior).
- These themes remained from the previous report:
- Oil services respondents expect higher output, employment and profitability growth than other industries.
- Wage growth expectations for 2024 and 2025: The 2024 expectation of 5.2% is in line with the Norges Bank’s June MPR forecast, while 2025’s 4.3% expectations is below the June MPR’s 4.5% projection.
- Capacity utilisation and labour supply constraints.
- Our full Norges Bank preview will be released next week.
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