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NORWAY: Smallest Goods Trade Surplus In 3 Years In September

NORWAY
CEEMEABulletNorwayGlobalForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

The Norwegian September goods trade balance fell to NOK42.8bln from NOK63.4bln prior, driven by continental shelf maintenance and lower oil prices. This was the lowest monthly trade surplus since June 2021.

  • Oil price volatility has picked up in October on the back of Chinese stimulus and heightened geopolitical tensions. This volatility will likely spillover into upcoming trade figures.
  • The offshore economy has supported overall GDP for several years now, so a renewed slump in oil prices – particularly if driven by global demand concerns – may force the Norges Bank into a faster pace of easing next year than currently assumed.
  • The 12-month rolling sum of the goods trade balance was NOK767bln, down 21% Y/Y.
  • Mainland Norway (i.e. ex-oil and gas) runs a structural goods trade deficit, which has been growing over the last decade. However, the September deficit of NOK28.9bln was smaller than last month’s NOK30.8bln. Strong fish exports of NOK15.9bln (+6% Y/Y) helped there, but was offset a little by a 40% Y/Y rise in car imports to NOK6.5bln.

 

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The Norwegian September goods trade balance fell to NOK42.8bln from NOK63.4bln prior, driven by continental shelf maintenance and lower oil prices. This was the lowest monthly trade surplus since June 2021.

  • Oil price volatility has picked up in October on the back of Chinese stimulus and heightened geopolitical tensions. This volatility will likely spillover into upcoming trade figures.
  • The offshore economy has supported overall GDP for several years now, so a renewed slump in oil prices – particularly if driven by global demand concerns – may force the Norges Bank into a faster pace of easing next year than currently assumed.
  • The 12-month rolling sum of the goods trade balance was NOK767bln, down 21% Y/Y.
  • Mainland Norway (i.e. ex-oil and gas) runs a structural goods trade deficit, which has been growing over the last decade. However, the September deficit of NOK28.9bln was smaller than last month’s NOK30.8bln. Strong fish exports of NOK15.9bln (+6% Y/Y) helped there, but was offset a little by a 40% Y/Y rise in car imports to NOK6.5bln.