POWER
Increased renewable production, rising electricity consumption, and the phase-out of fossil fuels in Europe and Norway will drive more variable power prices, while Norway’s energy balance weakens due to limited new power production plans until 2030, according to Statnett’s new long-term analysis.
- Norwegian power consumption is expected to grow to between 180-260TWh by 2050 from 140TWh currently, but without corresponding production growth, the energy balance will weaken.
- In Statnett’s “medium” consumption and production forecasts, demand is expected to reach 220TWh by 2050, with production at just 217TWh in the same period – leading to a net energy balance of around -3TWh.
- This rise is mostly due to demand from data centres.
- Norway may face increased dependency on imports, especially when local production is low, which could drive up prices, but also benefit from cheap imports during periods of surplus power production abroad, Statnett added.
- And lower average prices are expected in Norway and neighbouring countries, but short-term price fluctuations will continue due to overproduction in summer and shortages in winter.
- Additionally, Statnett's analysis predicts that average electricity prices in Norway will equalise over time as grid reinforcements are completed and consumption increases in northern Norway and Sweden.
- From 2040, average prices in Norway are expected to range around €50-55/MWh, with potential for significant variation based on domestic and international factors.
- The projected value of Norway's power exchange revenues from 2023-50 is estimated at NOK 180-300bn (€15-25bn), with bottleneck revenues contributing NOK 110-140bn.
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