Notable weight changes in UK CPI

Looking at the most notable (in our view) weight changs in CPI for 2024:

Increases (in parts per 1000):

• Catering and accommodation: Up a combined 7.6 parts.
• Social protection: Up 5.7 parts. A large part of this increase was due to increased childcare costs - this could change in future years as there is increased government funding for this sector and an expansion of free nursery places for younger children.
• Air fares: Up 5.5 parts. This is a very volatile component so could increase the volatility seen in CPI through this year.
• Clothing: Up 3.0 parts. Another very volatile component.
• Package holidays: Up 2.2 parts. Not a huge increase but again another very volatile component.

• Electricity and gas: Down -10.2 parts (split relatively evenly between electricity and gas). Will mean that headline inflation will be higher in April as the price call falls as this will pull the overall index down less.
• Food: Down -5.8 parts: As food prices have moderated, food as a proportion of all consumer spending has reduced.
• Purchase of vehicles: Down -4.0 parts (with new cars, used cars and motorbikes all pulling this weight lower). This will also probably have a bit of an upward impact on inflation overall, as vehicle prices continue to moderate after the supply-chain induced shortages seen during the pandemic - and knock on effects to the demand/supply of second-hand cars.
• Tobacco: Down -3.0 parts.