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Nov Inflation Preview: Divergence With Broader Eurozone To Continue

SPAIN DATA

Spain (11% of EZ HICP) – Released 0800UK Wed 29 November


Consensus:

  • HICP: 3.7% Y/Y (3.5% prior) / -0.1% M/M (0.3% prior)
  • CPI: 3.6% Y/Y (3.5% prior) / 0.1% M/M (0.3% prior)

October saw an uptick in Spanish headline inflation with electricity prices contributing to the upside.

  • Spain’s inflation breadth metrics for October were less reassuring than in other countries, with the proportion of components printing Y/Y rates under 2% falling to 28% (vs 30% in September).
  • In November, analysts expect electricity prices to fall, but for headline inflation to continue ticking upwards.
  • Core inflation is projected to stay put, signalling a continuation of the diverging trajectory of Spain’s inflation outcomes compared to the rest of the major Eurozone countries.

Source: INE, MNI Calculations

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