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Nov Inflation Watch: Elevated But Signs Of Cooling

CANADA DATA
  • BOC said Dec rate decision would focus on: evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing power.
  • Governor Macklem said in a speech economy is approaching balance as excess demand that made it easy to raise prices is about gone.
  • Q3 GDP -1.1% annualized compared with BoC prediction of +0.8% while Q2 GDP was revised up to +1.4% from -0.2%.
  • Inflation expectations remain a concern; business expect inflation between +3% and +3.5% over the next two years while consumers expect +5% next year.
  • Wage growth still high as unemployment creeps up; Nov jobs report +4.8% wage gains and Oct payroll average weekly earnings +4% YOY.
  • Corporate pricing power has yet to normalize as businesses continue
    to increase prices more frequently and by a larger amount than normal according to BoC Q3 Monetary Policy Report.
  • Global oil prices have been volatile from OPEC+ cuts and Israel-Palestine conflict, but generally have been falling. OPEC+ are expected to arrange further cuts anticipating low demand in 2024.
  • CPI continues to ease as headline +3.1% and core lowest in 2 years between +3.5% and +3.7%.
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