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November CPI Well Above Estimates, BanRep Decision Due Next Week

COLOMBIA
  • Released over the weekend, November CPI increased by 0.5% M/m against an estimate of 0.21%. This took the annual figure to 5.26% from 4.58% in October, with Core CPI also accelerating to 3.37% Y/y against a prior reading of 2.86%.
  • The next BanRep decision is scheduled for December 17 where these inflation data will likely boost the likelihood of the MPC sticking with the accelerated 50bp hiking pace, set in October. This would bring the overnight lending rate to 3%.
  • Consumer confidence is the sole domestic data point on the calendar this week. Economic activity data, retail sales and manufacturing/industrial production all due next week before the Friday BanRep decision.

Colombia CPI Y/y - Source Bloomberg

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