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COLOMBIA: November Exports Due

COLOMBIA
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  • Exports data for November will be released at 1500GMT(1000ET), with the consensus for shipments to dip slightly to $4.217bn, from $4.312bn the month before.
    • Nov. Exports FOB, est. $4.22b, prior $4.31b
  • Looking ahead to next week, focus will shift to December CPI inflation which is due to released on Thursday. The headline inflation rate is expected to remain broadly steady at 5.16% y/y, according to the median estimate of surveyed economists (vs. 5.20% in November), while the core rate is seen moderating to 5.62% y/y, from 5.88%.
  • The CPI data will follow the recently released BanRep minutes, which reiterated the hawkish post-meeting signals from the central bank and signalled that a cautious cutting cycle preserves the goal of bringing inflation back to target by year-end. Given the risks to inflation from last month’s sizeable 9.5% minimum wage hike, some analysts see the central bank having limited room to resume the previous pace of 50bp cuts, after slowing the pace to 25bp in December. The next MPC meeting is scheduled for Jan 31.
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  • Exports data for November will be released at 1500GMT(1000ET), with the consensus for shipments to dip slightly to $4.217bn, from $4.312bn the month before.
    • Nov. Exports FOB, est. $4.22b, prior $4.31b
  • Looking ahead to next week, focus will shift to December CPI inflation which is due to released on Thursday. The headline inflation rate is expected to remain broadly steady at 5.16% y/y, according to the median estimate of surveyed economists (vs. 5.20% in November), while the core rate is seen moderating to 5.62% y/y, from 5.88%.
  • The CPI data will follow the recently released BanRep minutes, which reiterated the hawkish post-meeting signals from the central bank and signalled that a cautious cutting cycle preserves the goal of bringing inflation back to target by year-end. Given the risks to inflation from last month’s sizeable 9.5% minimum wage hike, some analysts see the central bank having limited room to resume the previous pace of 50bp cuts, after slowing the pace to 25bp in December. The next MPC meeting is scheduled for Jan 31.