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November FOMC Minutes Preview (2/2): Analysts Look For Asset Purchase Clues

FED

A few sell-side previews for today's Minutes:

  • Deutsche looks to the minutes to "provide greater detail on how the Fed is thinking about potential changes to QE, and perhaps some clues as to how they would like to shape forward guidance".
  • Barclays believe the minutes "are likely to indicate that the FOMC took comfort from the incoming data flow at the November meeting", and will thus "show that most FOMC members feel comfortable with existing balance sheet policy, though an increase in the duration of Treasury purchases or increase in the monthly pace of purchases could occur should the outlook darken."
  • Citi says the minutes could include discussion of accommodation options, incl WAM and higher asset purchase pace, "which could cement December meeting expectations".
  • As does Goldman Sachs ("we will look for discussion on asset purchases") and Credit Suisse ("will likely contain discussions around changes to asset purchases").
  • RBC does not anticipate "any major market moving news" from the minutes, with COVID and fiscal developments as key themes in the meeting which could come up. That said, they note that the meeting "was obviously before the very positive news on vaccine efficacy from a number of companies – something we need to be mindful of when reading the Fed's now outdated risk assessment."
  • NatWest says "markets will be most interested in any discussion about potential changes to the asset purchase program."
  • ING writes that "any possible surprise" from these minutes would come from "hints at a QE expansion in December."
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