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November Forecasts Will Be Key For Policy Outlook

POLAND
  • On Friday, economic data showed that core CPI decelerated to 3.5% June (less than 3.6% expected), down from 4% in May.
  • We saw earlier this month that CPI inflation also slowed down in June to 4.4% YoY (vs. 4.7% the previous month), but is still standing above the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band.
  • PKO Bank Polski analysts recently estimated that a 12.4% increase in gas tariffs for households from August will increase the probability that consumer inflation reaches 5% at end-year.
  • This morning, policymaker Eryk Lon wrote that NBP may raise its policy rate if November forecast shows higher CPI.
  • Economic data to watch this morning (9am London time) are average gross wages and employment.

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