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November Industrial Production Adds to Muted Q4 Data

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY NOV INDUSTRIAL PROD +0.2% M/M (FCST +0.3%); OCT -0.4%r M/M

GERMANY NOV INDUSTRIAL PROD -0.4% Y/Y (FCST +0.1%); OCT -0.2%r Y/Y

November German Industrial production saw a modest +0.2% m/m rebound from the downwardly revises -0.4% m/m contraction recorded in October. Production levels remained -0.4% below November 2021 levels.

  • A dip in construction production is in part generating a weaker headline figure. Excluding energy and construction, German IP expanded by +0.5% m/m.
  • Within industry, immediate goods and capital goods production rose (+1.1% and +0.7%), whilst consumer goods declined (-1.5%) as demand softens.
  • This data follows Friday’s factory orders, which dived -5.3% m/m in November. The collapse in demand was largely driven by foreign orders, which will likely feed through into weaker year-end production levels.
  • Eurozone industrial production is due on Friday and expected to be expansive following the October contraction. Note that Irish data due at 1100 GMT will likely again distort the aggregate data, due to recently high volatility related to transfer pricing by multinational corporations.

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