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November Inflation Forecast To Be Reviewed Significantly Higher

POLAND
  • NBP policymaker Lukasz Hardt said in a webinar today that the central bank must continue the process of monetary policy normalization, and that the NBP must also improve its communication.
  • As a reminder, the NBP surprised the market last month by hiking the policy rate by 40bps (vs. unchanged exp.), up to 50bps, to curb the rising inflationary pressures.
  • Hardt added that he sees a significant higher CPI path in the November central bank's forecast.
  • October CPI print is coming out tomorrow (Oct 29), with inflation expecting to accelerate to 6.4% YoY, up from 5.9% the previous month.
  • PLN has been depreciating ahead of the NBP meeting next week (Nov 3), also impacted by the rise in political uncertainty over judiciary spat with the EU.
  • USDPLN has been trending higher this week, gradually approaching its psychological resistance at 4; next level to watch on the topside stands at 4.0160. On the downside, first support to watch stands at 3.9680, followed by 3.95.

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