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November IP Picks Up, But Outlook Remains Sluggish

SPAIN DATA

Spanish industrial production for November grew on an annual basis for the first time in 8-months, at +0.8% Y/Y (SWDA, vs a downwardly revised -1.4% prior). There was no consensus for the annual print.

  • The industrial/manufacturing outlook in Spain appears somewhat brighter than in Germany (which this week reported a 6th consecutive Y/Y fall), but remains weak according to the latest survey data. The Spanish manufacturing PMI remained sluggish below 50 in December, and while the latest EC Industry survey picked up to -6.5 (vs -9.6 prior), it was the 18th consecutive reading below zero.
  • On a sequential monthly basis, production exceeded consensus to rise +1.0% M/M (vs +0.2% cons, a downwardly revised -0.7% prior). The level of the SWDA index remains just over 2% below the post-covid peak seen in June 2022.
  • The 3MMA of the monthly series also grew 1.0% vs October, after negative prints in the five months prior.
  • All sub-components of the index rose in November, with capital goods rising +2.0% M/M (vs -1.7% prior) and consumer goods +1.7% M/M (vs -0.6% prior).
  • On an annual basis, energy production ended a 7-month streak of negative prints to grow +1.7% M/M. Note that the index is measured in volume terms.

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