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HEALTHCARE: Novo Nordisk (NOVOB: A1 pos / AA-): CagriSema Miss

HEALTHCARE
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  • Novo equity dropped as much as 29% as CagriSema showed weight loss of "only" 22.7%
  • Investors had been hoping for 25% losses as competition in the space is fierce
  • Eli Lilly is the main beneficiary of NOVOB's disappointment - at least for now (+6% in pre-market); NOVOB -19% currently.
  • Ultimately whether you are losing 22 or 25% of weight will depend on many factors, not least tolerance of the medication.
  • In the trial, 40.4% of patients DID achieve 25%+ weight-loss.
  • Novob had sales of $28.6bn and Net Profit of $10.2bn in 9M 24 and the market is still under-supplied in weight-loss drugs. This is not a near-term credit problem.

Bonds are 2-4bps wider in what is a soft market overall.

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  • Novo equity dropped as much as 29% as CagriSema showed weight loss of "only" 22.7%
  • Investors had been hoping for 25% losses as competition in the space is fierce
  • Eli Lilly is the main beneficiary of NOVOB's disappointment - at least for now (+6% in pre-market); NOVOB -19% currently.
  • Ultimately whether you are losing 22 or 25% of weight will depend on many factors, not least tolerance of the medication.
  • In the trial, 40.4% of patients DID achieve 25%+ weight-loss.
  • Novob had sales of $28.6bn and Net Profit of $10.2bn in 9M 24 and the market is still under-supplied in weight-loss drugs. This is not a near-term credit problem.

Bonds are 2-4bps wider in what is a soft market overall.