Nudging Higher, Middle East Tensions Remain In Focus

Brent crude is firmer in the first part of Friday trade, up around 0.60%, largely reversing losses from Thursday's session. We track near $90.25/bbl in recent dealings, which leaves us comfortably within recent ranges, although down on end levels from last week. The active WTI contract was last around $85.65/bbl.

• No military strikes from Iran or proxies yesterday helped take some of the risk premium out of oil. Reuters also reported that Iran will contain the fallout in its response to Israel (i.e. avoid a major escalation) and that its response will not be hasty (see this link).
• Still, other new outlets (WSJ) have stated Israel is preparing for a near term attack from Iran and/or it proxies. Market sentiment may be skewed towards not wanting to be short crude as we move towards the weekend, hence today's modest uptick.
• Elsewhere, OPEC maintained its oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and for 2025 steady, while slightly lowering the non-OPEC supply forecast for this year according to the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
• US officials reportedly met with Venezuelan officials this week, with democratic reforms discussed ahead of deadline around US sanctions on the country's oil industry (see this BBG link). Later on, we hear from the IEA around the global oil balance backdrop.
• The technical settings for WTI remain unchanged, a bull theme remains intact.