Number Of 'Never Biden' Voters Exceed 'Never Trump' Voters

The Washington Post has published polling analysis appearing to show that there are more ‘never Biden’ voters than ‘never Trump’ voters. The analysis suggests that one of the main variables of the 2024 presidential election – the voting intention of the so-called ‘double haters’ – could break from Trump in November.

• WaPo cites the recent NYT/Siena poll which showed more voters in the six swing states said there was “not really any chance” they’d vote for Biden (52 percent) than for Trump (46 percent).
• WaPo notes: “It’s the belief — or at least the hope — of many Democrats that Trump has a low “ceiling,” meaning the maximum percentage of voters who might vote for him. Trump, after all, didn’t clear 47 percent in either the 2016 or 2020 elections. The idea is that, if Biden can just rally the usual Democratic base, the path to victory there.”
• WaPo concludes: “While polls in 2020 showed double-digits more “Never Trump” voters, there are now more “Never Biden” voters in every recent poll that has asked this question.”

Figure 1: “% saying there is no chance they’d vote for each candidate” (2020)