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NY Fed Consumer Survey: Inflation And Job Loss Expectations Up

US
A few highlights from the NY Fed's latest consumer survey (see our Policy article for full details):
  • Views of losing one's job in the next 12 months increased 1pp to 16.0% in June, above its 2019 average of 14.3% and its year-ago value of 13.8%
  • Expectations that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now started increasing again in July reaching 39.3% from 35.1% in June, after three consecutive months of decline since reaching a series high of 50.9% in March.
  • Expectations about earnings remained steady as median expected household income stayed put at 2.1% in July for the second consecutive month, while is well below its 2019 average of 2.8%.
  • Median inflation expectations at the one-year horizon increased to 2.9% from 2.7% in June, above its 12 month trailing average of 2.5%; for 3 year horizon increased to 2.7% from 2.5%
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