NY Fed Survey: Job Transition Rate Falls to 3-Yr Low in July

--Bank Launches Triannual Survey of Labor Market Conditions

--Job Transition Expectations Slightly Higher vs March

--Expectations on Receiving Job Offers, Amount of Offer Declined

By Jean Yung

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The rate of people who transitioned to a different

employer fell to a three-year low in July, but more workers searched for a job

and the average full-time wage of job offers declined, according to a new labor

market survey out of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday.

     Among those who were employed four months ago, 89.8% were still with the

same employer, similar to the proportion of 89.6% in the previous survey in

March. The rate of transitioning to a different employer declined to 3.8% in

July from 4.3% in March, which was the lowest level since March 2014, the Fed

bank said.

     Looking forward, the rate of employed workers who expected to transition to

a different job was a tad higher in July, with the average expected likelihood

of remaining with the current employer at 85.6% compared to 86.1% in March. 

     The findings were published in the bank's inaugural Survey of Consumer

Expectations Labor Market Survey, which provides information on individuals'

experiences and expectations regarding the labor market. The bank has been

collecting survey data three times a year since March 2014 and now has enough

data to reveal trends. 

     In July, expectations regarding receiving job offers and the amount of

average expected offer both declined. The average expected likelihood of

receiving at least one job offer in the next four months fell for the third

straight time to 22.0% from 22.5% in March and 24.9% in November. 

     "This drop was primarily driven by males, for whom the average likelihood

declined from 24.1% in March to 21.4%," the Fed bank said. 

     For those who expected an offer, the average expected annual salary

declined from $54,590 to $50,790. "Although this was its lowest level in a year,

it still remains above 2014 levels," the bank said, adding the decline was

broad-based across demographic groups. 

     The average reservation wage, which is the lowest wage respondents would be

willing to accept for a new job, fell to its lowest level since March 2015 after

rising for most of 2015 and 2016. 

     "The drop was most pronounced for older (over age 45) and higher-income

(household income of greater than $60,000) respondents," the New York Fed said. 

     Looking at retirement, the average expected likelihood of working beyond

age 62 declined to 52.3% from 52.8% in March and was the lowest reading since

the series' start in March 2014, the Fed bank said. 

     The average expected likelihood of working beyond age 67, moved up slightly

to 33.5% from 33.1% in March but remains below the 2015-2016 average of 36.2%.

     The labor market survey will be released every four months on the third

Monday in August, December and April. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: jean.yung@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$U$$$]