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NY Fed Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)

US

According to the NY Fed, the latest UIG "full data set" measure for September is currently estimated at 2.9%, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.

  • The "prices-only'' measure for September is currently estimated at 2.2%, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.
  • The twelve-month change in the September CPI was +3.7%, the same level as the previous month.
  • For September 2023, trend CPI inflation is estimated to be in the 2.2% to 2.9% range, a slightly larger range than July, with a 0.2 decrease on its lower bound and a 0.1 decrease on its upper bound.

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