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Deutsche: Yield Up/Equities Down Episodes Boost USD

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NY Pre-Open Roundup

Geopolitical tension buoying FI markets to the highest levels of the week, 30YY currently 2.0913% from 2.2134% early Wed. Focus on Russia troop build on Ukraine border, unwinding a modest portion of tighter policy/inflation expectations priced into short/long end of the curve. Fed in media blackout over policy ahead Jan 26 FOMC -- but Pres Biden underscores support of Fed in addressing inflation.
  • Headlines of meeting between Russian foreign minister Lavrov and US Sec of State Blinken still dropping as two attempt diplomatic measures over Ukraine border troop build by Russia.
  • Not far from the front burner is China/US tensions over South China Seas passage: question over international waters or naval incursion/show of force.
  • Limited insight from economic data: leading index (1.1% est vs. 0.8% prior) 1000ET.
  • Additional FI support: equities weaker after sharp sell-off late Thu, gains pared after US Senate panel approved an "anti-trust bill restricting big-tech platforms. Sell-off accelerated on headlines stating US supports providing arms to Ukraine:
    • "U.S. Gives Baltic States Approval to Send U.S.-Made Weapons to Ukraine, Sources Say; Decision Will Enable Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia to Send Anti-Tank Weapons, Air Defense Systems to Ukraine", WSJ.
  • Reminder, Treasury options: Feb serial options expire today, relatively minor pin risk at moment.
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 |
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 |

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