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NYCB Worries Front Of Mind Again, QT Discussion Highlight Of Heavy Fedspeak

  • Cash Tsy yields sit 2.5-4bp lower, for a modest bull steepening (2s10s at -36bps, +0.5bp), primarily from NYCB-related worry after the bank highlighted material weakness re: internal controls, missed the deadline re: filing its annual report and changed its CEO late on Thursday.
  • Pre-market indications for the name have extended yesterday's post-market weakness (indicated 25-30% weaker). Our credit team believes that most of the issues appear to be name-specific, not systemic. That doesn't rule out pressure in related/linked names in NY equity trade.
  • TYM4 has touched session highs of 110-23+ (+09+) on strong volumes of 480k. It sits close to resistance at 110-25+ (20-day EMA) after which lies 111-07 (50-day EMA), with gains considered corrective as they move away from support at 109-25+ (Feb 23 low).
  • ISM mfg headlines today’s data after most regional Fed surveys beat expectations before yesterday's surprise slide in the MNI Chicago PMI. There is also heavy Fedspeak through the day, likely highlighted by Waller & Logan’s QT discussion.
  • Data: S&P Global US mfg PMI Feb final (0945ET), ISM mfg Feb (1000ET), U.Mich sentiment Feb final (1000ET), Construction spending Jan (1000ET), KC Fed services Feb (1100ET)
  • Fedspeak: Richmond Fed’s Barkin on CNBC (0830ET), Chic Fed’s Goolsbee on CNBC (1000ET), Gov. Waller & Dallas Fed’s Logan on QT (1015ET, incl text), Atlanta Fed’s Bostic on economic outlook (1215ET), SF Fed’s Daly moderated by KC Fed’s Schmid (1330ET), Gov. Kugler on dual mandate (1530ET, incl text) and Chic Fed’s Goolsbee on Fox (1600ET) – see STIR bullet for details.

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