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NZD: NZD Edges Slightly Lower, Hold Above 20-day EMA

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  • The NZD/USD dipped 0.21% on Thursday to 0.5675 however remains above its 20-day EMA near 0.5655, indicating resilience from buyers. Despite a loss of momentum, as seen in the RSI dropping to 53, the MACD remains flat with green bars, signaling a pause rather than a shift to bearish control. If the pair stays above 0.5640, the broader bullish bias remains intact, with a break above 0.5700 potentially leading to 0.5735. A close below the 20-day EMA, however, could trigger a deeper retracement.
  • There is nothing on the local calendar today, with focus turning to tonight US Non Farms which are expected to be 170k vs. 256k prior, with LA wildfires complicating labor readings
  • Key levels to keep an eye on to the downside is 0.5656 (20-day EMA) a break here would open a move back to Feb 3 lows of 0.5516. To the upside a break of the 50-day EMA at 0.5706 would be needed to test the ytd highs of 0.5723 (Jan 24).
  • No large nearby strikes Fri. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5935 (NZD411.1m Feb. 11), 0.5760 (NZD411.1m Feb. 12), 0.5725 (NZD399.9m Feb. 12)
  • RBNZ dated OIS was little changed on Thursday with NZ out for a public holiday. The market is pricing in a 87% chance of a 50bps cut, and cumulative 124bps of cuts by Nov 2025, down from 135bps early Wednesday.
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  • The NZD/USD dipped 0.21% on Thursday to 0.5675 however remains above its 20-day EMA near 0.5655, indicating resilience from buyers. Despite a loss of momentum, as seen in the RSI dropping to 53, the MACD remains flat with green bars, signaling a pause rather than a shift to bearish control. If the pair stays above 0.5640, the broader bullish bias remains intact, with a break above 0.5700 potentially leading to 0.5735. A close below the 20-day EMA, however, could trigger a deeper retracement.
  • There is nothing on the local calendar today, with focus turning to tonight US Non Farms which are expected to be 170k vs. 256k prior, with LA wildfires complicating labor readings
  • Key levels to keep an eye on to the downside is 0.5656 (20-day EMA) a break here would open a move back to Feb 3 lows of 0.5516. To the upside a break of the 50-day EMA at 0.5706 would be needed to test the ytd highs of 0.5723 (Jan 24).
  • No large nearby strikes Fri. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5935 (NZD411.1m Feb. 11), 0.5760 (NZD411.1m Feb. 12), 0.5725 (NZD399.9m Feb. 12)
  • RBNZ dated OIS was little changed on Thursday with NZ out for a public holiday. The market is pricing in a 87% chance of a 50bps cut, and cumulative 124bps of cuts by Nov 2025, down from 135bps early Wednesday.