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NZD: NZD Falls On Tariffs Headlines, Consumer Confidence Edges Lower

NZD
USNew ZealandNorth AmericaBulletAPACForeign Exchange BulletsMarkets
  • The NZD/USD is 0.40% lower at 0.5633, steadying somewhat after hitting a low of 0.5623 following more Tariff headlines, Trump said there will be a 25% Tariff imposed on both Canada & Mexico, while he also mentioned there will be tariffs on China.
  • The kiwi has broken back below the 20-day EMA, while momentum is turning bearish again with the MACD almost back to neutral, while the RSI indicator is now at 45. Initial support is now 0.5580 (Jan 19th lows) with a break opening a move to test the YTD lows of 0.5545 (Jan 12). Resistance is the 50-day EMA at 0.5717.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap is ticking lower again, after a 30bps move higher in Jan, we are 11bps off those levels now at -77bps.
  • New Zealand’s consumer confidence fell to 96.0 in January, down from 100.2 in December, marking a 4.2% MoM decline. This reverses December’s slight gain and is the weakest reading since October. Households remain cautious, with weaker perceptions of family finances (-17 vs. -14 YoY) and a drop in economic outlook (1-year ahead: -15 vs. -12, 5-year ahead: 5 vs. 7). While the willingness to buy major household items plunged to -16, a sharp decline from -1 in December, signaling weaker consumer spending.
  • There is little change to RBNZ dated-OIS with the market pricing in a 97% chance of a 50bps cut at next months meeting, with another cut priced in by April and a cumulative 123bps priced through to November.
  • No large nearby strikes Fri, upcoming notable strikes: 0.5700 (NZD379.1m Feb. 5), 0.5900 (NZD350m Feb. 5)
  • The calendar is empty for the rest of the day, with focus turning to building permits on Tuesday and Employment data on Wednesday
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  • The NZD/USD is 0.40% lower at 0.5633, steadying somewhat after hitting a low of 0.5623 following more Tariff headlines, Trump said there will be a 25% Tariff imposed on both Canada & Mexico, while he also mentioned there will be tariffs on China.
  • The kiwi has broken back below the 20-day EMA, while momentum is turning bearish again with the MACD almost back to neutral, while the RSI indicator is now at 45. Initial support is now 0.5580 (Jan 19th lows) with a break opening a move to test the YTD lows of 0.5545 (Jan 12). Resistance is the 50-day EMA at 0.5717.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap is ticking lower again, after a 30bps move higher in Jan, we are 11bps off those levels now at -77bps.
  • New Zealand’s consumer confidence fell to 96.0 in January, down from 100.2 in December, marking a 4.2% MoM decline. This reverses December’s slight gain and is the weakest reading since October. Households remain cautious, with weaker perceptions of family finances (-17 vs. -14 YoY) and a drop in economic outlook (1-year ahead: -15 vs. -12, 5-year ahead: 5 vs. 7). While the willingness to buy major household items plunged to -16, a sharp decline from -1 in December, signaling weaker consumer spending.
  • There is little change to RBNZ dated-OIS with the market pricing in a 97% chance of a 50bps cut at next months meeting, with another cut priced in by April and a cumulative 123bps priced through to November.
  • No large nearby strikes Fri, upcoming notable strikes: 0.5700 (NZD379.1m Feb. 5), 0.5900 (NZD350m Feb. 5)
  • The calendar is empty for the rest of the day, with focus turning to building permits on Tuesday and Employment data on Wednesday