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NZD: NZD/USD Edges Slightly Lower As Market Expects 50bps Cut At RBNZ Meeting

NZD
USNew ZealandNorth AmericaBulletAPACForeign Exchange BulletsMarkets
  • NZD/USD fell 0.24% to 0.5831 on Tuesday, more than erasing gains made on Monday and made new yearly lows, touching 0.5800 before a small rebound. Initial weakness in the NZD followed comments from Trump around tariffs on China, Mexico & Canada, which saw risk markets sell-off while the USD surged. All eyes are now on the RBNZ, who are expected to cut 50bps at today's meeting.
  • One-day implied volatility surged 9.12 to 18.282, the level implies there is a 71.8% chance the pair will trading between 0.5742-0.5925 over the coming week, with spot currently at 0.5832.
  • The OIS market is pricing in 56.2bps of cuts or roughly a 25% chance of a 75bps, although just a single analyst expects there to be 75bps of cuts. Looking further out the OIS curve, the market is pricing 96.1bps of cuts by Feb, down 2bps from Monday and 155bps of cuts by October 2025, it was pricing in roughly 120bps of cuts early last week.
  • MNI RBNZ Preview-November 2024: 50bp Closer To Neutral - (See link)
  • Taking a look at technical levels, initial support is 2023 lows of 0.5772 (Oct 26th 2023), with a break there then opening a potential move to the 2022 lows at 0.5500. Initial resistance is 0.5915/0.5920 (20-day EMA/Nov 20 highs), above here 0.6000 (50-day EMA).
  • The US-NZ 2yr swap fell another 2bps on Tuesday to -59bps and trades just off multi-year lows.
  • Upcoming expiries; 0.575 ($300m), 0.5865 ($449.79m), 0.6220 ($200m), 0.6400 ($581.25m) for Nov 27 cut
  • Today, focus is on the RBNZ rate decision at 1200 ADST, followed by RBNZ News Conference on Mon Policy Statement at 1300 ADST
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  • NZD/USD fell 0.24% to 0.5831 on Tuesday, more than erasing gains made on Monday and made new yearly lows, touching 0.5800 before a small rebound. Initial weakness in the NZD followed comments from Trump around tariffs on China, Mexico & Canada, which saw risk markets sell-off while the USD surged. All eyes are now on the RBNZ, who are expected to cut 50bps at today's meeting.
  • One-day implied volatility surged 9.12 to 18.282, the level implies there is a 71.8% chance the pair will trading between 0.5742-0.5925 over the coming week, with spot currently at 0.5832.
  • The OIS market is pricing in 56.2bps of cuts or roughly a 25% chance of a 75bps, although just a single analyst expects there to be 75bps of cuts. Looking further out the OIS curve, the market is pricing 96.1bps of cuts by Feb, down 2bps from Monday and 155bps of cuts by October 2025, it was pricing in roughly 120bps of cuts early last week.
  • MNI RBNZ Preview-November 2024: 50bp Closer To Neutral - (See link)
  • Taking a look at technical levels, initial support is 2023 lows of 0.5772 (Oct 26th 2023), with a break there then opening a potential move to the 2022 lows at 0.5500. Initial resistance is 0.5915/0.5920 (20-day EMA/Nov 20 highs), above here 0.6000 (50-day EMA).
  • The US-NZ 2yr swap fell another 2bps on Tuesday to -59bps and trades just off multi-year lows.
  • Upcoming expiries; 0.575 ($300m), 0.5865 ($449.79m), 0.6220 ($200m), 0.6400 ($581.25m) for Nov 27 cut
  • Today, focus is on the RBNZ rate decision at 1200 ADST, followed by RBNZ News Conference on Mon Policy Statement at 1300 ADST