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NZD: NZD/USD Slightly Higher As US Tsys Yields Find Support

NZD
  • NZD/USD closed up 0.17% at 0.6015 on Thursday. Yields were the largest contributor the moves with US tsys closing the session flat to 4.5bps lower, ending the three session run of higher yields. The Kiwi has now dropped 5.17% from recent highs, and is trading back at mid August levels.
  • Earlier, NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence fell 4.1% m/m in October, from a 3.1% rise in September, while the index dropping to 91.2 from 95.1
  • Looking at technical levels, the pair made new cycle lows on Wednesday before a small bounce on Thursday, the 14-Day RSI at 35, just above the yearly lows made in July however the MACD indicator is printing decreasing red bars, which could signal the sell-off is running out of steam. Support rests at 0.5988 (Aug 15 low & 76.4% retracement of July 31- Sep 30 rally). Initial resistance is 0.6057 (61.8% retracement of July 31- Sep 30 rally), above here the 20-day EMA at 0.6100 become the target.
  • The NZ-US 2 year swap dropped 2bps on Thursday to close at -33bps, the lowest since Feb 2020.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing has cooled 1-2bps through the front-end of the curve with 56bps of cuts priced for November and 99bps of cuts priced across the next two meetings. OIS was little changed further out the curve, with 164bps of cuts priced until October 2025.
  • The calendar is empty for the remainder of the session.
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  • NZD/USD closed up 0.17% at 0.6015 on Thursday. Yields were the largest contributor the moves with US tsys closing the session flat to 4.5bps lower, ending the three session run of higher yields. The Kiwi has now dropped 5.17% from recent highs, and is trading back at mid August levels.
  • Earlier, NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence fell 4.1% m/m in October, from a 3.1% rise in September, while the index dropping to 91.2 from 95.1
  • Looking at technical levels, the pair made new cycle lows on Wednesday before a small bounce on Thursday, the 14-Day RSI at 35, just above the yearly lows made in July however the MACD indicator is printing decreasing red bars, which could signal the sell-off is running out of steam. Support rests at 0.5988 (Aug 15 low & 76.4% retracement of July 31- Sep 30 rally). Initial resistance is 0.6057 (61.8% retracement of July 31- Sep 30 rally), above here the 20-day EMA at 0.6100 become the target.
  • The NZ-US 2 year swap dropped 2bps on Thursday to close at -33bps, the lowest since Feb 2020.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing has cooled 1-2bps through the front-end of the curve with 56bps of cuts priced for November and 99bps of cuts priced across the next two meetings. OIS was little changed further out the curve, with 164bps of cuts priced until October 2025.
  • The calendar is empty for the remainder of the session.