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NZD: NZD/USD Steady, Holds Below 20-day EMA, Focus On US CPI

NZD
  • The NZD/USD rose by 0.08% on Tuesday to 0.6150, ranges were tight, as were all risk markets as we awaits the Trump v Harris debate and US CPI later today. The pair remains below the 20-day EMA, a level that acted as resistance on Tuesday, the 14-day RSI holds steady at 50 while the MACD is printing increasing red bars, indicating bearish momentum.
  • RBNZ assistant Governor Karen Silk has been speaking this morning at a Kanga news events, but as of yet there have been no headlines out.
  • The pair has been declining since reaching a new cycle high of 0.6300 on Aug 29th, with risk markets also falling over that time. There has been very little in the way of local market headlines or drivers out of the region over the last few session. We do have Net Migrations numbers up shortly, although this will have limited impact on the markets, all eyes turn to US CPI tonight.
  • Initial support is 0.6125 (Sept 10 lows) below here 0.6112 (50-day EMA). To halt the downward trend, the pair needs to recover above the 20-day EMA at 0.6158 while further upside resistance is 0.6186 (Sep 9 highs) and while 0.6200 (Round number) becomes the next major resistance.
  • RBNZ dated OIS has soften 2bps for the October meeting although firmed 2-4bps through to July 2025. The market is still pricing 80bps of cuts by year-end.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap spread rose 4bps on Tuesday to close at 26bps
  • Expiries: 0.6065 ($497.32m) Sept 11 NY Cut
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