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NZD: Steady But Still Close To 20-day EMA Resistance, ANZ Consumer Conf Surges

NZD
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NZD/USD tracked very tight ranges post the Asia close on Thursday, not getting beyond 0.5880/0.5900, in US Thanksgiving impacted holiday trade. The pair tracks near 0.5890 currently, after little net change for Thursday's session. 

  • We are still up for the week at this stage (last Friday's end level was 0.5833), aided by the broader USD pullback around month end, along with the RBNZ's hawkish 50bps cut mid week.
  • Another 50bps cut is expected in Feb next year, but the easing pace is likely to slow after that. A lot is likely to depend on the how the growth outlook involves, per our policy team.  
  • For NZD/USD technicals we aren't too far away from a topside 20-day EMA resistance test (near the 0.5910). Like elsewhere this resistance point hasn't been meaningfully been breached for the Kiwi since early Oct. This week's lows come in just under 0.5800.
  • We have already had the  Nov ANZ consumer confidence print. It rose 9.4%, to be up to 99.8 in index terms. This is fresh highs for the index back to Q3 2021 and is consistent with other confidence metrics which have bounced in recent months and could support firmer economic activity in 2025.
  • The local data calendar is empty now until next Monday when building permits for Oct print. 
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NZD/USD tracked very tight ranges post the Asia close on Thursday, not getting beyond 0.5880/0.5900, in US Thanksgiving impacted holiday trade. The pair tracks near 0.5890 currently, after little net change for Thursday's session. 

  • We are still up for the week at this stage (last Friday's end level was 0.5833), aided by the broader USD pullback around month end, along with the RBNZ's hawkish 50bps cut mid week.
  • Another 50bps cut is expected in Feb next year, but the easing pace is likely to slow after that. A lot is likely to depend on the how the growth outlook involves, per our policy team.  
  • For NZD/USD technicals we aren't too far away from a topside 20-day EMA resistance test (near the 0.5910). Like elsewhere this resistance point hasn't been meaningfully been breached for the Kiwi since early Oct. This week's lows come in just under 0.5800.
  • We have already had the  Nov ANZ consumer confidence print. It rose 9.4%, to be up to 99.8 in index terms. This is fresh highs for the index back to Q3 2021 and is consistent with other confidence metrics which have bounced in recent months and could support firmer economic activity in 2025.
  • The local data calendar is empty now until next Monday when building permits for Oct print.