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NZD/USD Breaks Below 0.6000 Post Budget Statement

NZD
  • NZD/USD has broken back below 0.6000 after NZ FinMin spoke earlier as she released the Budget Policy statement. The pair now trades at 0.5991, after making intraday lows of 0.5888.
  • Key levels to watch: Initial support at 0.5986 (Mar 25 lows), below here 0.5941 (Nov 17 lows). Initial resistance lies at 0.6031 (Mar 27 highs), further up 0.6050 (Mar 22 high), a break above opens a move to the 0.6075 (20-day EMA).
  • The NZ-US 2y swap is near lows of the year at -25bps
  • Upcoming expiries: US$570m put with a 0.600 strike for March 27th NY cut.
  • New Zealand's Finance Minister Nicola Willis released the Budget Policy Statement, indicating weaker economic and tax outlook over the next five years. The Treasury downgraded GDP growth expectations, projecting 0.1% annual average growth through June 2024 and 2.1% through June 2025. Tax revenue is expected to be NZ$13.9 billion less than projected in the HYEFU. Despite the challenges, Willis aims for a surplus by 2028, with meaningful tax cuts to be funded through reprioritization, savings, and new revenue measures. The government targets a net debt of 20-40% of GDP, with no need for borrowing for tax relief.
  • Looking ahead, Thursday ANZ consumer confidence, activity outlook and business confidence is due out.
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