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NZD/USD Edges Higher Ahead Of RBNZ Tomorrow

NZD

The NZD/USD rose by 0.30% to 0.6019, with technical indicators showing bullish momentum. The RSI is above 50, and the MACD signals increasing upside potential. Focus is on the RBNZ who meeting tomorrow, with the market pricing in a 63% chance of a cut.

  • The NZD/USD rose despite a slight haven bid overnight as concerns about a possible Iran attack on Israel saw oil & gold prices push higher, while equities were a touch lower. The currency trades just below initial resistance of 0.6027 (50-day EMA)
  • Initial support is 0.5992 (20-day EMA), with a break here opening a move to 0.5913 (Aug 6 lows with major support at 0.5850 (Aug 5 lows). Initial resistance is 0.6027 (50-day EMA) a break would see a move to test 0.6048 (50-day EMA)
  • The RBNZ looks more likely than not to cut rates tomorrow, according to OIS market pricing. August OIS pricing is now pricing in a 63.5% chance of a cut tomorrow, although this is down from 75% chance yesterday, 48bps of cuts are priced for October and 89bps of cuts by the December meeting.
  • Bloomberg consensus is for rates to be left unchanged at 5.50%
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap spread was 7bps higher on Monday closing at 11bp.
  • Today, we have net migration at 08:45 AEST
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