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NZD/USD has ticked higher and sits at..........>

KIWI
KIWI: NZD/USD has ticked higher and sits at $0.6364. We have already seen
migration data and ANZ Truckometer Heavy out of New Zealand, with the latter
printing at +2.9% M/M vs. the upgraded prior reading of +2.9%. The focus turns
to Q4 2-year inflation expectation, due later today.
- It goes without saying that tomorrow's RBNZ MonPol decision headlines this
week's docket. Governor Orr's post-MonPol presser & parliamentary testimony, due
tomorrow & Thursday are also of note. Elsewhere, food price index comes out
tomorrow & BusinessNZ m'fing PMI hits on Friday.
- Markets currently price in a ~66% chance of a 25bp cut to the OCR tomorrow.
- To recap, the rate advanced yesterday, resisting headwinds from second
thoughts on U.S.-China trade talks & flaring violence in Hong Kong. Pre-RBNZ
positioning may have played a role here.
- Bulls would be pleased by a break above the $0.6400 figure, which would open
up the 38.2% retracement of the Jul 19 - Oct 1 slide at $0.6428. Bears look for
a move below the $0.6346 50-DMA towards $0.6322, the low of Nov 8.

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