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NZD/USD Off Lows, But Lags On Crosses On Carry Over From Weaker CPI Print

NZD

NZD/USD was the weakest performer in the G10 space for Thursday's session, losing 0.44%. The currency spent most of the post Asia close recovering. From just under 0.6150 we rebounded above 0.6200 in NY trade, before edging back to 0.6170/75 by the close. Broad USD sentiment was weaker, as US yields pulled back on weaker than expected data, most notably the Philly Fed miss.

  • In terms of technicals, all key EMAs sit above 0.6200, the 20-day closest at 0.6223. On the downside the simple 200-day MA comes in at 0.6162, with Thursday's dip below this level proving unsustainable.
  • The pull back in US yields through Thursday helped keep NZ-US swap spreads within recent ranges. The 2yr spread was threatening to break below +70bps after yesterday's Q1 CPI miss.
  • Still, NZD remained an underperformer on crosses, as the market speculates the RBNZ is getting close to the end of its tightening cycle. The AUD/NZD cross sits just below Thursday session highs, last in the 1.0915/20 region.
  • The local data calendar is empty today, but we do have RBNZ Deputy Governor Hawkesby speaking on financial stability. Speaking notes will be published at 12:30pm local time, but comments on monetary policy are expected to refer to the most recent monetary policy review.
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