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NZD/USD Overnight Vols Sub 2024 Highs Ahead OF RBNZ, Yen Drifting Weaker

FOREX

Early FX trends have been very steady in the G10 space. The BBDXY USD index sits little changed, last near 1261.25. The majors are little changed against the USD.

  • We have the June China inflation data coming up, followed shortly after by the RBNZ decision. This decision is seen firmly on hold, while the RBNZ bias/language also shouldn't change much.
  • NZD/USD is a touch higher but within recent ranges, last 0.6125/30. AUD/USD is around 0.6735/40, with the AUD/NZD cross back just under 1.1000.
  • Options markets have NZD/USD priced at 0.6083-0.6173 for the next day (probability just under 80%). NZD/USD overnight vol is +14.5% but we sit sub intra-session highs from 2024 (around 20%).
  • Earlier NZ data showed a continued slowing in net migration trends.
  • USD/JPY has drifted a little higher, moving back towards 161.50, marginally extending yen's underperformance from the past 24 hours. Earlier data showed the June PPI in line with market expectations at 2.9% y/y (prior was 2.6% y/y).
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