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NZD/USD Tests 0.5900, House Sales Rise 8%

NZD

The Kiwi traded sideways until the US session kicked off on Monday, US Empire Manufacturing missed estimates coming in at -14.3 vs -5.2, while Retail Sales had another strong beat increasing 0.72% m/m vs 0.4 expected in Mar after an upward revised 0.94% from 0.6 in Feb. The NZD finished the session down 0.66% at 0.5904, while the BBDXY closed up 0.18% at 1,261.69

  • The NZD/USD continued to sell-off as higher-than-expected retail sales led to higher US yields, the currency closed the session just off lows of 0.5899 at 0.5904 and new cycle lows. The pair has fallen 3% from Apr highs made on the 10th, and now trade back at Nov 14 levels.
  • Key levels to watch: Initial support is at 0.5900 (Round number support), a break here would open a move to 0.5863 (Nov 11 lows), while a break here would could signal a move to test the yearly lows at 0.5775 (Oct 26 lows). Initial resistant is at 0.5954 (Apr 15 highs), above here 0.5998 (20-day EMA).
  • The US-NZ 2y is up 5bps to -16.25bps
  • (Bloomberg New Zealand Inflation Tipped to Slow Toward RBNZ’s Target Band - (See link)
  • Earlier, REINZ House Sales rose 8.0% y/y in March, down from 37.9% y/y in Feb
  • Option expiries: 0.5985 (NZD499.1m) Apr 15 NY cut, while Upcoming notable strikes, 0.5900 (NZD901m April 17), 0.5995 (NZD780m April 18), 0.5900 (NZD625.2m April 18)
  • Looking ahead: Next data released will be CPI on Wednesday
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