NZD/USD trades at $0.6408, a touch lower.......>

KIWI: NZD/USD trades at $0.6408, a touch lower amid a slightly risk-off mood. A

marginal uptick was seen in the U.S./Asia crossover as the local ANZ Consumer

Confidence Index improved, but the rate generally remains range-bound.

- A combination of solid local economic data and Westpac's decision to scrap

their call for an RBNZ rate cut in Nov lent support to the kiwi from the off

yesterday, with NZD/USD peaking just shy of monthly highs in Asia hours.

However, a BBG report putting into question potential for a long term Xi-Trump

trade pact triggered a fresh round of NZD/USD sales. Subsequent recovery allowed

the rate to re-test earlier highs, but it eased off later on. That said, NZD

remained on of the best G10 performers despite deteriorating risk environment.

- Markets currently price in a 55% probability of a 25bps cut to the OCR at the

next RBNZ meeting this month, per BBG WIRP tool. This represents a rapid decline

from an almost 100% chance baked in two weeks ago.

- Bulls look for a push above the Oct 22 monthly high of $0.6436 before

targeting the Sep 12 peak at $0.6451. Bears look for a dip below $0.6381, the

23.6% retracement of this month's bull market.