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NZD: NZD/USD Can't Sustain 20-day EMA Topside Break, Tariff Headlines Dominate

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NZD/USD spiked as high as 0.5685 in Monday trade, amid reports that Trump was considering a watered down tariff plan (per the Washington Post). Trump’s aides are reportedly "exploring plans" to apply tariffs to every country “but only cover critical imports”. However, bearish dollar sentiment was tempered as President-Elect Trump later claimed the article to be fake news. The NZD/USD sits back at 0.5640/45 in early Tuesday dealings, which is still up ~0.55% for Monday's session. This slightly lagged broader USD index trends, with the DXY and BBDXY index both off around 0.60-0.65%. 

  • Monday intra-session highs for NZD/USD tested briefly above the 20-day EMA (around 0.5680), but once again we couldn't sustain this break. This has been a theme since early October of last year. On the downside, recent cycle lows rest just under 0.5590.
  • In the cross asset space, equity sentiment was mostly positive across the major indices, EU markets up 2.36%, while tech outperformed in the US, with the Nasdaq climbing a further 1.24%. US yields were softer at the front (2yr down nearly 2bps), but higher at the back end. Sentiment was dominated by Trump related tariff speculation.
  • The local NZ data calendar remains empty today. Barfoot noted that average Dec house prices rose 4.7%m/m, although sales and new listings were down compared to Nov levels. 
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NZD/USD spiked as high as 0.5685 in Monday trade, amid reports that Trump was considering a watered down tariff plan (per the Washington Post). Trump’s aides are reportedly "exploring plans" to apply tariffs to every country “but only cover critical imports”. However, bearish dollar sentiment was tempered as President-Elect Trump later claimed the article to be fake news. The NZD/USD sits back at 0.5640/45 in early Tuesday dealings, which is still up ~0.55% for Monday's session. This slightly lagged broader USD index trends, with the DXY and BBDXY index both off around 0.60-0.65%. 

  • Monday intra-session highs for NZD/USD tested briefly above the 20-day EMA (around 0.5680), but once again we couldn't sustain this break. This has been a theme since early October of last year. On the downside, recent cycle lows rest just under 0.5590.
  • In the cross asset space, equity sentiment was mostly positive across the major indices, EU markets up 2.36%, while tech outperformed in the US, with the Nasdaq climbing a further 1.24%. US yields were softer at the front (2yr down nearly 2bps), but higher at the back end. Sentiment was dominated by Trump related tariff speculation.
  • The local NZ data calendar remains empty today. Barfoot noted that average Dec house prices rose 4.7%m/m, although sales and new listings were down compared to Nov levels.