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NZD: NZD/USD Edges Lower, Still Holds Above 0.5600, PMI Remains In Contraction

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  • The NZD/USD ended its three day run of green days to close down 0.20% at 0.5605. The pair broke back below 0.5600 as we awaited US data overnight before quickly recovering after US retail sales closed December on a solid note, signifying continued strong domestic demand to end 2024. While headline retail sales growth was slightly softer than expected (0.4% vs 0.6% survey), but that was offset in part by an upward revision to November (0.8% from 0.7%).
  • The pair hit a high of 0.5625 post the data release, before paring some of those gains heading into the close.
  • Looking at technicals, the pair has traded sideways over the past few sessions, wrapped around 0.5600, a close below here would open a move to 0.5540 (Jan 13 lows) with a break here opening up a move to test the 2022 lows of 0.5500. To the upside, a break back above the 20-day EMA at 0.5635 is needed to see any momentum change, above would open a move to 0.5693 (Jan 7 highs)
  • New Zealand's manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 45.9 in December from 45.2 in November but remained in contraction territory for the 22nd consecutive month. All five sub-indexes were below 50 and historical averages, with production falling to a six-month low of 41.9, while employment improved to 47.6, the highest since May. New orders also rose slightly to 46.5.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap continues to trade higher, rising 7bps to -65bps on Thursday, this follows on from last Friday when it hit a new yearly low of -95.5bps just off all time lows of -100bps
  • No large nearby strikes Fri. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5475 (NZD450m Jan. 22), 0.6050 (NZD348.2m Jan. 21), 0.5660 (NZD328.6m Jan. 21)
  • Local data calendar is empty for the remainder of the session, focus will be on China data due out later today.
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  • The NZD/USD ended its three day run of green days to close down 0.20% at 0.5605. The pair broke back below 0.5600 as we awaited US data overnight before quickly recovering after US retail sales closed December on a solid note, signifying continued strong domestic demand to end 2024. While headline retail sales growth was slightly softer than expected (0.4% vs 0.6% survey), but that was offset in part by an upward revision to November (0.8% from 0.7%).
  • The pair hit a high of 0.5625 post the data release, before paring some of those gains heading into the close.
  • Looking at technicals, the pair has traded sideways over the past few sessions, wrapped around 0.5600, a close below here would open a move to 0.5540 (Jan 13 lows) with a break here opening up a move to test the 2022 lows of 0.5500. To the upside, a break back above the 20-day EMA at 0.5635 is needed to see any momentum change, above would open a move to 0.5693 (Jan 7 highs)
  • New Zealand's manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 45.9 in December from 45.2 in November but remained in contraction territory for the 22nd consecutive month. All five sub-indexes were below 50 and historical averages, with production falling to a six-month low of 41.9, while employment improved to 47.6, the highest since May. New orders also rose slightly to 46.5.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap continues to trade higher, rising 7bps to -65bps on Thursday, this follows on from last Friday when it hit a new yearly low of -95.5bps just off all time lows of -100bps
  • No large nearby strikes Fri. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5475 (NZD450m Jan. 22), 0.6050 (NZD348.2m Jan. 21), 0.5660 (NZD328.6m Jan. 21)
  • Local data calendar is empty for the remainder of the session, focus will be on China data due out later today.