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NZD: NZD/USD Edges Slightly Lower Following CPI, Holds Above 20-Day EMA

NZD
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  • NZD/USD fell 0.28% to 0.5663 on Wednesday, it did recover some of the earlier weakness following a mixed data CPI that caused the NZD to underperform all other G10 currencies early.
  • Looking at technical levels, spot remains above the 20-day EMA and needs to stay above here in order to see any momentum swing, focus will now be on breaking 0.5693 (Jan 7 highs) with a break here opening a move to test the 50-day EMA at 0.5726, we have not traded above the 50-day EMA since Oct 4. Initial support is 0.5563 (Jan 17 lows).
  • New Zealand Treasury reported a fiscal operating deficit of NZ$3.9 b for the five months ended November 30, slightly exceeding the NZ$3.91b projected in the December update. Core Crown tax revenue aligned with forecasts, with higher sales tax (+NZ$200m) offsetting weaker source deductions (-NZ$200m) due to a softer labor market. Net core Crown debt stood at 43.1% of GDP, marginally above the 43% forecast. The OBEGAL deficit was NZ$4.74 billion, NZ$56 million wider than anticipated.
  • New Zealand recorded a net migration gain of 30,592 people in the year ended November 30, the lowest since December 2022, down from a revised 35,502 in October. The annual net inflow included approximately 78,500 non-NZ citizens, offset by 48,000 net outward migration of NZ citizens. Seasonally adjusted monthly net immigration rose to 2,070 in November, up from a revised 1,530 in October
  • Today's expiries: 0.5675 (NZD796.5m), 0.5660 (NZD486.4m). Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5791 (NZD300m Jan. 28)
  • Later today tsy will sell 30, 31, 36 & 41 bonds, with the data calendar now empty until Trade Balance next Thursday
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  • NZD/USD fell 0.28% to 0.5663 on Wednesday, it did recover some of the earlier weakness following a mixed data CPI that caused the NZD to underperform all other G10 currencies early.
  • Looking at technical levels, spot remains above the 20-day EMA and needs to stay above here in order to see any momentum swing, focus will now be on breaking 0.5693 (Jan 7 highs) with a break here opening a move to test the 50-day EMA at 0.5726, we have not traded above the 50-day EMA since Oct 4. Initial support is 0.5563 (Jan 17 lows).
  • New Zealand Treasury reported a fiscal operating deficit of NZ$3.9 b for the five months ended November 30, slightly exceeding the NZ$3.91b projected in the December update. Core Crown tax revenue aligned with forecasts, with higher sales tax (+NZ$200m) offsetting weaker source deductions (-NZ$200m) due to a softer labor market. Net core Crown debt stood at 43.1% of GDP, marginally above the 43% forecast. The OBEGAL deficit was NZ$4.74 billion, NZ$56 million wider than anticipated.
  • New Zealand recorded a net migration gain of 30,592 people in the year ended November 30, the lowest since December 2022, down from a revised 35,502 in October. The annual net inflow included approximately 78,500 non-NZ citizens, offset by 48,000 net outward migration of NZ citizens. Seasonally adjusted monthly net immigration rose to 2,070 in November, up from a revised 1,530 in October
  • Today's expiries: 0.5675 (NZD796.5m), 0.5660 (NZD486.4m). Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5791 (NZD300m Jan. 28)
  • Later today tsy will sell 30, 31, 36 & 41 bonds, with the data calendar now empty until Trade Balance next Thursday