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NZD: NZD/USD Falls, Holds Just Above 0.5600 Following Hawkish Fed Minutes

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  • After a positive start to the week, the NZD/USD has now erased those gains, trading 0.44% lower on Wednesday to 0.5610, just off the Jan 2 lows of 0.5587. The pair has paused its pullback but struggles to attract buyers, FOMC minutes showed that officials have adopted a slow, careful approach to future rate cuts in coming quarters amid elevated inflation risks.
  • The USD recovers on strong economic data and hawkish Fed signals, with rising Treasury yields and geopolitical risks supporting dollar strength, with gains following reports that Trump is considering a national economic emergency declaration to allow for a new tariff program, the BBDXY closed 0.36% higher at 1,311.20.
  • The pair is now eyeing off the lows made last week of 0.5587 a break here would open a move to the 2022 lows of 0.55. We trade well below all moving averages, while the RSI indicator is nearing oversold levels again at 34. Initial resistance is at 0.5667 (20-day EMA)
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap remains near multi-year lows at -83bps, although little changed on Wednesday
  • Global Dairy Trade prices declined, with whole milk powder averaging $3,804 per ton, down from $3,890 previously. The weighted average price for all milk products was $4,029 per ton, and the GDT price index fell by 1.4%.
  • Notable expiries for today include: 0.5875 (NZD767.7m), 0.5555 (NZD430.7m), 0.5650 (NZD374m)
  • There is little on the local calendar until Jan 13, when Building permits out due out.
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  • After a positive start to the week, the NZD/USD has now erased those gains, trading 0.44% lower on Wednesday to 0.5610, just off the Jan 2 lows of 0.5587. The pair has paused its pullback but struggles to attract buyers, FOMC minutes showed that officials have adopted a slow, careful approach to future rate cuts in coming quarters amid elevated inflation risks.
  • The USD recovers on strong economic data and hawkish Fed signals, with rising Treasury yields and geopolitical risks supporting dollar strength, with gains following reports that Trump is considering a national economic emergency declaration to allow for a new tariff program, the BBDXY closed 0.36% higher at 1,311.20.
  • The pair is now eyeing off the lows made last week of 0.5587 a break here would open a move to the 2022 lows of 0.55. We trade well below all moving averages, while the RSI indicator is nearing oversold levels again at 34. Initial resistance is at 0.5667 (20-day EMA)
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap remains near multi-year lows at -83bps, although little changed on Wednesday
  • Global Dairy Trade prices declined, with whole milk powder averaging $3,804 per ton, down from $3,890 previously. The weighted average price for all milk products was $4,029 per ton, and the GDT price index fell by 1.4%.
  • Notable expiries for today include: 0.5875 (NZD767.7m), 0.5555 (NZD430.7m), 0.5650 (NZD374m)
  • There is little on the local calendar until Jan 13, when Building permits out due out.