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NZGBS: Cheaper After Q2 CPI Upside Surprise

BONDS

NZGBs are 4bp cheaper after Q2 headline CPI surprises slightly on the upside with a print of +1.1% q/q (+6.0% y/y) versus expectations of +0.9% (+5.9% y/y) and +1.2% (+6.7% y/y) prior. The print was however in line with the RBNZ’s forecast.

  • Importantly, non-tradeable CPI also printed higher than expected at +1.3% q/q versus expectations of +1.0% and +1.7% prior. The print nevertheless was the lowest quarterly rise since Q2 2021.
  • Swap rates are 4-6bp higher with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bp firmer across meetings after the CPI data. Terminal OCR expectations firm to 5.65% from 5.64% yesterday.

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